The Great Frustration Rollercoaster

what 20 years of book data can tell us about the future of nonfiction

If I’ve learned one thing from my time researching publishing, it’s that industry is cyclical. The industry might be a merry-go-round, but the feelings (and the takes) are more like a rollercoaster. Frustrations rise and fall with the sales patterns. In the anticipation of the climb, the thrill of the drop, and the disorientation of the swirling middle, it’s easy to forget that a rollercoaster, too, is cyclical. A rollercoaster returns its windswept riders back to the beginning before it picks up a brand new crop of thrill-seekers.

This series tackles the rollercoaster that is Nonfiction. This is a challenging time for writers of nonfiction. Adult fiction has experienced five consecutive years of growth in sales, rising 12.6% in 2024, according to preliminary data from AAP Statshot⁠. Adult nonfiction has been a bit sluggish, comparatively, increasing by only 1.3%.

But for all the hand-wringing and doomsaying I’ve heard, I’ve also heard some predictions: the situation is about to change. We’re poised for a resurgence. It simply can’t stay like this forever.

In the last issue of this series, I wrote about what agents are looking for in new nonfiction. This week, we’re looking at book deals. What are publishers buying? How has that changed over time? And, importantly, what can the data tell us about the next five years? Where are we on the Great Frustration Rollercoaster?

This post not only examines where we’ve been, and why nonfiction feels especially challenging at the moment, but also makes some data-driven predictions about the future of nonfiction acquisitions. There are, of course, some very pretty graphs. All for my beloved paid subscribers.

Strap in, folks. Please remain seated, and keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times, and remain seated until the vehicle comes to a complete stop. Enjoy the ride!